Im in the uk, and on average, i get 80 down and 20 up.
I also use a vpn, not had data messages like the OP but when it comes to large downloads on msfs, i inly get about 20mb rate (showing in the progress screen) i turn on VPN either normally to USA or netherlands, and it goes right upto my max limits of 80 and downloads 4x as quick, dont really notice a difference in day to day simming tho, but i am mainly in airliners so cant really comment on that all too well