Thunderstorms are back in live wx

Exactly why we need options for the weather. As you say, can’t be 100% realistic. It will always be plausible weather in the sim. I think we all can agree on that one. Then what kind of plausible should be used i think we all know what route they have chosen. The old simple method by copy and paste METAR data into the sim. I think they are fine with that as long as it matches those. Because thats what the most of the users check before flight. I think TS and LTNG from those are missing though and that causes the issue thunderstorms missing. Would be a simple thing to fix by adding a stormcell with lightnings as soon as that are mentioned on those METARS and most of the users would be happy i think. But for me that is a really outdated method of creating weather in my opinion.

I think both you and i want the same kind of weather into the sim but may accept different type of limitations of that plausible weather.

Can only hope they make us all happy in MSFS 2024.

Plenty of action in Southern Oregon today…In real life. In the sim, a handful of clouds. I don’t even care about thunder and lightning at this point. Just give me clouds (high-top) thunderheads (or close), wind and precip. These storms were a way away from an airport with an AWOS. Maybe that’s the issue? I figure they’d use radar and satellite to spot storms.

They kinda sorta do. I haven’t been able to correlate exactly their method, but I was able to find some really nasty cells as part of a line last week that were not indicated by any nearby METAR (thus, they were being procedurally generated by something else). They were about 40 miles behind where the actual line was in real life, but they were there.

I see that most of today’s initiation in OR took place about 5 hours ago (just before 2300Z). What the sim doesn’t do well at all is handle the early stages of storms (this plays back into why you can’t use older forecasts to simulate “live” weather. It all seems to have to be there for a while for it to make it into the sim as a congruent weather system. I’m wondering what time and where you were poking around in the sim?

买了带机箱的,问了客服,可以给补发w

I’m bad with Zulu time but, I flew RDM-SFO at FL370 at around 630-7pm PDT. Storms were popping off all day south of RDM and east of LMT. However, most of the airports (Paisley, Christmas Valley, etc) are “podunk” and don’t have sophisticated weather reporting. But the radar and satellite were juicy in that area. The storms start out around around US97, but really get going east of that line.

Add 7 hours to PDT (8 to PST) to get to GMT, so that’s 0130-0200Z. At that time, the storms were fairly well-established, so I don’t know what to tell ya.

Here you have an area of embedded thunderstorms, tops to FL440, convective SIGMET issued, all sorts of real-world airliner traffic diverting around the area, well forecasted, but nothing in the sim. It’s exactly the issue I lament. Why do we have these gaps? I suspect it’s either misparameterization (wrong or insufficient data are being used to generate storms) and/or the lack of geotemporal granularity (the time/area resolution is not small enough).

This kind of weather - a fairly localized area of afternoon instability - has too much of an impact on aviation to ignore.

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Sorry, in the previous post I had tried to upload pics showing the storms, but it didn’t seem to go through.

Here they are:

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If so, that’s a massive red flag that all of the US is missing this data. I’m sure Asobo and MS will probably pretend they have never heard this being a problem on an upcoming dev stream.

I agree, the data are absolutely available, it just may be that they’re not commercially integratable.

It’s crazy that we all still have to speculate as to how the sim weather system works. We get going down some major rabbit holes, but we have no idea how it’s actually coming together under the hood. A bit more transparency would probably simmer the commentary down. Of course, it could also make it worse. My guess is it’s wrapped up in contracts and NDAs.

Has anyone seen a lightning in the sim with default weather? Because I haven’t - flown near and under TS but nothing other then massive clouds and rain.

I’ve seen it with live weather. I saw it last year for sure. It never went away, I think it just became very rare, or possibly only in certain regions.

I mostly chose fair weather flying (for good reasons) so I’m not expecting to see lightening except on rare occasion!

Yes.

It’s easy to find in Live Weather. Click around on the World Map setting random departure points until the Live Weather icon shows thunderstorms:

It’s common in the tropics because of the weather parameters they’re using to control lightning (relative humidity is a part of it probably hence the tropics). Northern South America and Florida are good places to check.

If you turn on Developer Mode->Debug Weather, it’s easy to see if there’s lightning there or not. The “Ambient Lightning” variable will have a value greater than zero:

You can just slew around until the value changes.

Unfortunately the underlying issues remain. Mainly that there are no CBs in this scene, and yet we have lots of lightning, which is extremely unnatural:

This behavior has been unchanged for months (years?) since they made Live Weather lightning much less common. But it’s always been there. I think folks are just happening upon lightning by chance or noticing it more as the Northern Hemisphere warms up.

I hope this is addressed in FS24, but I’m not holding my breath. And this is also why I hope tornadoes are confined to missions only. Random tornadoes at inappropriate times could ruin the gameplay.

South Florida is great place to fly right now if you want to see CBs and lightning in Live Weather:

There’s really lightning there right now:

And the sim has it too:

And the convection is thousands of feet deep with rain, not just tiny puff balls:

The lightning parameter got as high as 45% here, which is the highest I’ve seen it. I made an observation here though that I think is making the clear air lightning issue much more apparent. The lightning MUST come out of a cloud. So if there are only a few clouds in the scene, like in the first example here, then you see all these clear air lightning bolts emanating out of the same tiny puffballs. It looks super unnatural. But when there actually is deep convection, like in the second Florida example here, even though the lightning probabilities are much higher, the lightning is spread out among a lot more clouds and also obscured by the rain and clouds, so it’s actually harder to see the bolts.

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I’m still curious as to how they estimate the lightning factor. There’s so much more to convection than simply looking at a surface-based lapse rate and/or relative humidity.

I live in central florida. Last week the worst lighning storm of the year came through. Just out of curiosity i risked frying my computer from a power surge and booted the sim. Spawned at the local airport. Nothing, mostly cloudy with a ceiling of 4 to 5000 feet. Not even raining. I looked out the window and it looked like armageddon outside.

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I don’t know the specifics on that storm. Maybe it was a bad forecast miss. But central Florida gets a lot of pop-up airmass storms that produce highly localized weather. Flight Simulator will always struggle to handle these because its Live Weather uses a global forecast model that’s best at handling large scale weather patterns. When there’s a big frontal passage or depression moving through you’ll likely see the sim producing some corresponding weather. And despite producing severe weather over specific locations, those afternoon clusters and rings of thunderstorms that spring up over the peninsula will often get missed as the sim draws partly cloudy skies instead.

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i don’t get any lightning or thunder in live weather even if the world shows thunderstorms i have tried around 100 different locations from airports with Metar showing TS to out in the middle of the ocean.

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I tried finding thunderstorms today and… I found it! Steps that I took:

  1. Found a website with real time lightning information and found some around Florida. Note that I took this screenshot of the website after the flight: things had moved in the mean time.

  1. Checked airports in the vicinity: chose Naples. The trail shows how I flew around in the storm

  1. Loaded the sim and checked Naples real time weather. Hey presto, showed thunderstorms!

  1. Loaded the flight and indeed: there was lightning! I did not catch a bolt of lightning in a screenshot but they were there. In keeping with my recent luck, there was a very strong wind, fortunately pretty much aligned with the runway. Again I saw IAS come alive while lined up on the runway. Note the 26+kts indicated while still stationary. More about that for my return to Naples afterwards…

Full overcast up to 10,000ft, where I decided to call it a day

Decided to look up a suitable approach for Naples and headed back for RNAV Rwy 23. Had to dive down manually to get on the right altitude for the IAF as I was too close to the airport when I dialed in the approach. But it all worked out fine in the end.

But just look at that wind!

Man, was I glad when I finally broke through! Really pushing the minimums there…

The landing was hairy! Turned out the wind was gusting heavily and swinging around quite a bit.

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I certainly hope that my mid-range system has the horsepower to calculate complex weather physics.

I’m not optimistic, though. I think I’d need a supercomputer for that sort of thing.

Well, it shouldn’t be necessary to calculate turbulence in accordance to the whole atmospheric simulation.
We had good turbulence up until SU5 or something.
Now its just ultra-rapid micro-gusts.

A method would be to insert (random) turbulence A,B,C etc in accordance to the present atmospheric conditions. No need to simulate every molecule to get good turbulence effects.