Using Meteoblue to understand in-game weather, an exposé

“As real as it gets” to quote a familiar tagline. Live/real weather data simply doesn’t exist, at least not in the way most people think it does. Flight Simulator model based weather is approximately real.

Or that’s how it should be at least. But it isn’t.

And the real problem is I can’t tell why. Other than going to the “Meteoblue site” and then kind of eyeballing what’s happening in Flight Simulator, I have no idea what data Flight Simulator is pulling and what it intends to do with it.

  • Which model source is Flight Simulator using? It should be the Meteoblue NEMS 30km global. But I actually don’t know. Does it say anywhere?
  • Which model run is Flight Simulator using?
  • Which forecast hour is Flight Simulator using?

Here’s the Flight Simulator world map:

Note the large weather system west of Alaska and over the western Aleutians

Here’s the current plot from Meteoblue’s 30km NEMS Global over the area:

Doesn’t match at all. It shows the system already over Alaska. Meteoblue’s NEMS Global is actually quite close to what the GOES satellite is showing:

If that Meteoblue data were plotted in Flight Simulator I’d call it real. But that’s not what we get in Flight Simulator.

You know what Flight Simulator does match? Meteoblue’s plot from 6am this morning, 12 hours ago now:

Which suggests Flight Simulator downloaded the 12z run of Meteoblue’s NEMS Global, and it’s using the initialization hour and it hasn’t updated it since. So now the weather in Flight Simulator is 12 hours old. If I knew the weather was 12 hours behind, I could actually plan for that using real maps, but I don’t until I dig around and try to figure out what’s going haywire here.

The Live Weather in Flight Simulator remains largely broken, and it’s an opaque mystery box as to why.

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Hey Skip! I was hoping this thread might catch your eye. I always appreciate your insights.

You’re absolutely right about how it isn’t real and it’s impossible to actually plan using conventional methods right now. But that’s really the point I was trying to make, you can get a “general picture” using Meteoblue, but that’s about it. Like you said, it starts off great but as whatever model they inject for “Live” weather ages, it goes off the rails a bit.

I agree, it’s frustrating that it’s impossible for me to fire up Foreflight and use it for anything other than a moving map, but I’m curious if Asobo really intended the “live” weather to be “REAL” weather the way we’re all used to from the FSX days.

I’m not sure if it’s “broken,” or if it just doesn’t work the way we think it ought to. (Barring it not loading, in-game ATIS/METARs being inaccurate to what’s happening the sim, etc.) Furthermore, maybe that’s why Asobo says “improvements” for the weather rather than “fixes.” Sometimes I’m under the impression that, when it boils down to it, they didn’t expect people like us to be so picky about this sort of thing.

Thanks, and not trying to argue, but this isn’t an issue of the model diverging from real life as you get further into a forecast. It’s that Flight Simulator is using the wrong forecast hour. That effectively breaks the Live Weather feature as far as I’m concerned. The weather displayed in Flight Simulator is what actually happened in real life, but 12 hours ago.

I’ve seen this issue since the Alpha, so whatever problems they’re having are ongoing.

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The weather being 12 hours’ old is distinct from the weather forecast being 12 hours’ old. The initialisation time is when the forecast was updated not when the weather in MSFS is set at or from. Does Metroblue’s NEMS Global model publish updates more than once per day?

I’m a ECMWF/UKMO FAX user.

Precisely, but as far as the sim weather goes, it’s changing and dynamic. Or “live” as Asobo puts it. I think that’s the target Asobo was trying to hit here, not with it necessarily being representative of the real world.

Their NEMS Global updates twice daily at 12z and 0z I believe.

The problem is they’re using f0, the initialization hour, for the weather in Flight Simulator, when they should be using f12. So It’s actually using the wrong forecast hour.

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What I have in Flight Simulator right now is clearly a bug on the Flight Simulator side. It’s using the weather from the wrong hour.

This is interesting. Did you just take that snapshot? Here’s my latest live weather. Everything appears much further onshore for me.

Yep, just loaded it right now and still see the same 12 hour old plot. Maddening that it’s not even consistent between users.

I verified in the simulator itself, slewing through that weather system. It actually matches the Meteoblue plots in terms of precip, cloud bases and tops quite well… except from 12 hours ago.

I wonder if actually loading in we’d experience such vastly different weather, then. Comparing our maps, that’s the difference between a clear day and clouded over if we were sitting on the Seward Peninsula. We’ve not had such large discrepancies in my own friend group with what everyone is looking at.

Hopefully they’ll start pushing more timely models to users as well as implementing more planning tools to know the in-game truth so that it’s more useable. Not using real world sources for ceilings is fine, just departing blind and assuming (or shot-gunning with the meteomap to find out) there’s low ceilings kind of sucks.

So that’s a question for next weeks Q&A

  1. “What is the expectation of the date and time of the weather on the servers? Should we expect it to be 1 hour old, up to 12 hours old?”

  2. “How are we supposed to do flight planning based on weather? We currently have no real access for actual weather report along our route. Maybe a bit of a picture of the clouds, but that’s about it.”

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The data going into Flight Simulator from Meteoblue should be between 6 and 18 hours old. Their model runs twice a day and takes a little under 6 hours to process and get posted online. But that’s just when the forecast was made. The actual weather in Flight Simulator should be “current”, as in the forecast for the current hour, based on a forecast made 6 to 18 hours ago. If the data is older than that, or the forecast hour doesn’t match “current”, then there’s a problem somewhere.

That’s the problem with using proprietary weather data. If the model they used was something like the GFS, then it would be free and open for all to access. You could use any website or flight planning software that pulls GFS data. Right now we’re limited to the free maps on the Meteoblue website. They don’t have a flight planning tool do they? And if Flight Simulator’s Live Weather consistently worked as advertised, you could probably use any flight planning tool and the weather would be “close enough”. But there are enough glitches just getting timely data and implementation holes in what weather it actually creates that flight planning is a real problem.

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Most worse is when I done a flight and do another flight that almost weather is not injecting.
Mostly the second flight has clear sky, 16°C.
It’s not to recover until a restart of MSFS.
I dialed around with preset option to live weather and also tried live weather to trigger injection but like I wrote only a restart get it right. I don’t know if it is sever related or a bug. Sometimes it worked on the second flight. Not using REX.

I’m just curious if there’s a bit of unavoidable delay with Asobo getting that data and then being able to stream it to users, and that’s the origin of the game and actual model not matching up entirely. That’s of course ignoring our own experience with our live maps not showing up properly in game, but I think that might be something different entirely.

That’s the point I was making, and Skip touched on this too with his reply. The way MSFS is doing weather is just different from, for example, FSX. It isn’t taking real world METARs and loading them in based on where you are. It’s impossible to plan using Foreflight or some other real world source. Like Skip said, if there was a service that could pull the model data for a location, you could use that. But that doesn’t seem to exist just yet - The best you can do is look at the Meteoblue map and get a very general overview, which is more accurate at times and less at others.

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Have you tried loading a flight with the clear weather preset selected to start then switch to Live? That just about works for me without fail. I never load in with Live already selected.

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I will give it a try :ok_hand:. I recently tried both combinations the one with preset set to live and none preset with live weather.

This might just be a concise thread relating to my biggest issue with the sim. I am glad I found it courtesy of another member. I hope we can keep it on topic and not get distracted by the issue of live weather not working at all!

This is not a criticism by the way, I’m genuinely excited to have found a thread in which people share the same concerns as me, namely, that I just want to be able to plan a flight knowing what that weather is going to be, both at departure and destination and en-route. Whether that be strictly live, or from a forecast, regardless of whether this forecast actually then occurred in real life, matters not, the weather that is in the sim just needs to be accessible somehow from a plan planning perspective, using meteoblue’s own website or otherwise.

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It’s possible the gridded model output from Meteoblue has to be processed into another format that Flight Simulator can use, and this might take awhile. But Microsoft has the infrastructure such that this should be a non-issue. It’s also possible that Flight Simulator could just read and use the model output directly with no server side pre-processing needed. They’d just need servers to mirror and distribute the data to millions of users. But even if it tacks on another couple hours of time to process the forecast, this delay still shouldn’t be apparent to users in the game. Whether it takes 6 hours or 20 hours to make the updated data available to the game, there should still be a forecast that’s valid for the current hour, and it should still be accurate enough such that major weather systems aren’t displaced by hundreds of miles.

But maybe Microsoft didn’t want to commit the infrastructure or servers hosting and processing global weather data? Maybe the much smaller game developer studio, Asobo, is actually hosting and sending this data? Kind of like how Aerosoft, a European publisher far smaller than Microsoft, was tasked with the physical distribution of the boxed version, which apparently Microsoft couldn’t be bothered with? Perhaps the weather data is getting treated in a similar fashion, like this game is Microsoft’s red headed stepchild. I’d love to get a behind the scenes tour of what’s going on with this game, but I’m sure that will never happen.

METARs are supposedly already in the game. The developers discussed in a QA session somewhere that they’re blending METARs in with the model data. The problem again is that we have no idea when this is happening, what METAR stations it’s using, which observation time is being used, and how that observation is being translated into the simulator’s weather. It’s just a big mystery box again.

I think that’s what’s actually holding us back from flight planning though: The state of the weather engine in Flight Simulator is in. At worst it’s an early alpha where it’s missing major features (remember live winds were largely broken at launch, humidity and visibility are still almost entirely missing), or at best a buggy beta (like how my weather data is off by 12 hours). I think if the weather engine actually worked as advertised, you’d simply use whatever weather tools you normally use for flight planning. You’d go and download METARs from whatever site, and the simulator’s model based weather would be close enough that they’d still be usable.

It’s cool that we have a peek at what’s probably the actual data going into the simulator’s weather, which is what’s displayed on the Meteoblue website and what this thread demonstrates. It reminds me of how we can see the actual textures and scenery that Flight Simulator uses by opening up the Bing Maps app. But I don’t have to use Bing Maps to plan my flight. The implementation of Bing Maps in Flight Simulator is such that I can use Google Maps or Skyvector to plan my flight, and they’re going to be close enough 95% of the time. A few airports might be missing and a few roads need updating, but any other usual source is totally usable for navigation purposes in the simulator. The weather should work the same way. I should be able to use the Aviation Weather Center or other data from the National Weather Service, Windy, or models like the ECMWF to plan flights. There shouldn’t be a need for hunting for data on a third party’s proprietary website or asking Meteoblue to create new flight planning tools that work on their NEMS model. So I think what we’re after here in order to get usable flight planning capability, is to keep pressuring Asobo to actually finish the weather engine, and not let them say that this is good enough.

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Yes, they have been using r/w METARS for airport surface weather since around the late November - early December time frame. It sets 3 parameters from the METAR: surface temperature, surface pressure and surface wind speed and direction. Clouds and precipitation do not come from the METAR, nor does visibility.

The surface temperature and wind speed/direction appears to be effective within about a 5 mile radius of the airport, and up to about 1500-2000 feet AGL, beyond that, the value changes to that of the MeteoBlue model. When the aircraft crosses the METAR/Model boundary, the temperature changes instantly. The wind speed and direction changes more slowly.

It appears that the effect of airport METAR pressure extends outwards quite a bit farther - perhaps up to 30 miles radius and several thousand feet altitude. It may be affected by whether you are using a flight plan with a specific destination airport specified, or just doing a free flight without a plan.

Do not put any credence in whatever “cloud” report may be contained in an airport’s ATIS broadcast. That has been broken since the sim was released. The ATIS report will always give “clouds” in 3 layers, even if the weather is perfectly clear, and the ATIS clouds have nothing whatsoever to do with either real time METAR or the MeteoBlue forecast model weather that might be injected.

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My point was to ask them.

Those are certainly good ideas. I want to know what their plan is. You can’t have a flight simulator without an ability to do flight planning. What we think it should be is all nice and good, and maybe “cute” to them. I want to know what their plans are.

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